Quebec’s Public Finances Between Demographic Changes and Fiscal Sustainability
|Titre||Quebec’s Public Finances Between Demographic Changes and Fiscal Sustainability|
|Publication Type||Book Chapter|
|Authors||Godbout, L., St-Cerny S., Bouchard St-Amant P-A., & Fortin P.|
|Book Title||The Family, the Market or the State?|
We use recent population projections to describe briefly the process of demographic ageing expected to occur in the Canadian province of Quebec between 2010 and 2056. We next provide a quantitative assessment of the consequences of the demographic transition by projecting Quebec’s budgetary balance until 2056. A problem of fiscal sustainability is quickly identified. We then examine how sensitive the projection results are to demographic and economic assumptions. Finally, we explore the significance of assuming that health expenditures in the last year of life are several times larger than for survivors. Under this alternative assumption, health spending decreases by a small, but significant, amount in the long run.